Li Zichao, Gu Yajuan, and Jian Yanjun, CCS Shanghai Rules & Research Institute  

At present, greenhouse gas emissions reduction has become the focus of concern and discussion in the international community, and the shipping industry, as an important logistics and transportation mode supporting global trade, is also facing enormous pressure for transformation and upgrading. The EU proposed the “Fit for 55” legislative package in 2021, which accelerated the legislative process for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from shipping. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted the “2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships (the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy) ” in 2023, and proposed the ambitious goal of achieving net zero emissions by or around 2050, demonstrating IMO’s ambition to actively address global climate challenges. With the formulation and implementation of shipping emission reduction policies by various regions and international organizations, profound changes have been brought to the transformation and development of the shipping industry. 

The FuelEU Maritime is the industry’s first regulation that proposes the full lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of marine fuels, which officially came into effect on January 1, 2025. It aims to reduce the GHG intensity of marine energy, encourage the use of shore power by ships, and promote the use of renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) including E-ammonia, E-methanol, etc., which has attracted widespread attention from the international community and has had a profound impact on the shipping industry.

In order to promote the application of wind-assisted propulsion system technology and RFNBO during the implementation of the Regulation, certain incentive measures have been set up in the method of calculating the annual GHG fuel intensity of ships. Specifically, if the sail-assisted propulsion power accounts for 5% of the ship’s propulsion power, a 1% fuel intensity discount reward can be given; if the proportion of sail-assisted propulsion power is 10%, a 3% fuel intensity discount reward can be given; if the proportion of sail-assisted propulsion power is 15% or more, a 5% fuel intensity discount reward can be given. The rewards generated by equipping wind-assisted propulsion systems can help ships using conventional fuels meet their compliance needs during the initial implementation of the FuelEU Maritime regulation, while sustainably generating compliance surplus for trading.

According to the analysis, if a ship is equipped with a sail-assisted propulsion system, a reward factor ranging from 1% to 5% will be given. To analyze the impact of equipping a sail-assisted propulsion system under the FuelEU Regulation on performance, a 7500CEU PCTC operating on the China-Europe route is taken as an example for impact analysis. The parameters are assumed as follows:

The ship departs from China, passes through Spain, Belgium, Germany, and finally arrives in Sweden. The total length of the one-way voyage is 12,635 nautical miles, with a fuel consumption of 1,130 tons of HFO and 144 tons of MDO. The actual GHG intensity of the fuel is 91.63gCO₂eq/MJ. Assuming that the ship travels back and forth on the China-Europe route four times a year, analyze its compliance and performance in 2025, 2030, and 2035 under the requirements of the FuelEU Maritime regulation and after the installation of wind-assist propulsion device. 

Based on the requirements of the aforementioned FuelEU Maritime regulation and assumed calculation parameters, Fig. 1-2 and Table 2-4 show the compliance surplus and FuelEU penalties of 7500CEU PCTC equipped with a wind-assisted propulsion system under different wind-assisted propulsion reward factors in different years. 

Fig. 1 Compliance Surplus of FuelEU in Different Years

Fig. 2 Fines for FuelEU in Different Years

Table 2 Calculated Fuel Intensity Values for Different Years

Table 3 Compliance Surplus of Fuels in Different Years (t)

表4 不同年份燃料的FuelEU罚款（欧元）

Table 4 FuelEU Penalties for Fuels in Different Years (in euros)

It can be seen that in the first year of the implementation of the FuelEU Maritime regulation, when the ship was not equipped with a wind-assisted propulsion equipment, its annual fuel GHG intensity value was 91.63gCO₂eq/MJ due to the use of conventional fossil fuels, which was slightly higher than the limit of 89.34gCO₂eq/MJ, resulting in an additional 952.55t of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, and the penalties of 608,500 euros need to be paid for compliance. Over time, the regulation has gradually increased the GHG intensity requirements for fuels, with the penalties rising to 1.576 million euros and 3.6318 million euros in 2030 and 2035, respectively, which are approximately 2.59 times and 5.97 times higher than the initial year, indicating a relatively high amount of penalties.

When the ship is equipped with a wind-assisted propulsion equipment that can generate at least 5% propulsion, the minimum penalties expenditure can be reduced by 249,400 euros, 229,700 euros, and 208,900 euros in 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively. If the wind-assisted propulsion equipment installed on the ship can generate 15% or more propulsion, it means that there is a 5% reward when calculating the annual fuel GHG intensity of the ship. In 2025, the ship can achieve compliance without paying penalties. At the same time, there is 950.21t surplus carbon dioxide equivalent available for pool trading. If the trading carbon price of EU ETS is used as a reference, the trading value is about 85,500 euros; in addition, in 2030 and 2035, the penalties for the ship are 0.3794 and 2.5434 euros respectively, which can reduce the penalties expenses by 1.1966 million and 1.0884 million euros compared to when the wind-assisted propulsion equipment is not installed.  

Fig. 3 Accumulated FuelEU Penalties between 2025 and 2039

According to the FuelEU Maritime regulation, ships need to achieve compliance annually. Fig. 3 shows the cumulative penalties expenditure of ships. From the Figure, it can be seen that if ships use conventional fossil fuels and are not installed with a wind-assisted propulsion equipment, the cumulative penalties expenditure from 2025 to 2039 will be 29.0815 million euros for a total of 15 years; if the ship is equipped with a wind-assisted propulsion equipment that meets the regulatory requirements, the cumulative penalties expenditures for scenarios f_wind=0.99, f_wind=0.97 and f_wind=0.95 are 25.6917 million euros, 19.3253 million euros, and 14.641 million euros, respectively. Compared to the scenario f_wind=1, the cumulative expenditures are reduced by 3.3897 million euros, 9.7562 million euros, and 14.4674 million euros, respectively. It can be seen that the wind-assisted propulsion equipment can significantly reduce the Fuel EU compliance costs of vessels running on conventional fuels.

At present, the initial investments for installing wind-assisted propulsion equipment that meets the requirements of FuelEU Maritime regulation f_wind=0.99, f_wind=0.97 and f_wind=0.95 are 1.5, 3, and 5 million euros. From the analysis of a 15-year assessment cycle, after considering the installation cost of the wind-assisted propulsion equipment, even when disregarding fuel cost reduction from fuel savings, under the provisions of the FuelEU Maritime, wind-assisted propulsion equipment is still a very cost-effective technical retrofitting plan. Especially for equipment that meets the requirements of f_wind=0.97 and f_wind=0.95, it can significantly reduce the ship’s compliance cost within a 15-year cycle. Therefore, for ships operating on the China-Europe route for a long time, it is recommended to assess the feasibility of wind-assisted propulsion equipment based on the ship’s own arrangement and configuration, install and operate the wind-assisted propulsion equipment in a timely manner according to the operating status to reduce the dual operating costs of ship compliance and fuel expenses and improve the market competitiveness.

Currently, low-carbon and zero carbon fuels represented by methanol, ammonia, etc. have not yet been commercially available on a large scale. The formulation and implementation of the FuelEU Maritime regulation have provided a strong policy driving force for promoting the application of wind-assisted propulsion technology on ships. Through onboard application cases analysis, it can be seen that if a 15-year assessment cycle is adopted, the wind-assisted propulsion equipment that meets the requirements of f_wind=0.97 and f_wind=0.95 can significantly reduce the compliance cost  of ships, making it a cost-effective technology retrofitting measure for ships. For ships operating on the China-Europe route for a long time, it is recommended to assess the feasibility of installing the wind-assisted propulsion equipment, and promptly carry out the installation and operation of the wind-assisted propulsion equipment according to the operating status, in order to reduce ship operating costs and improve the market competitiveness.